The Great Game

Now, I don’t usually turn my focus to East Asia, as I know least about the politics of that region. Kim Jong Il’s intent to detonate a nuclear* weapon, however, is newsworthy enough that even my narrow focus will be diverted to North Korea. I spent a little bit of time in college studying the Cold War, debating the virtues or the futility of nuclear deterrence, articulating how and why countries act, parsing politics down to game theory.

In this instance, even the universal seems not to apply. What does Mr. Kim gain by a nuclear test? Let’s think it through. In early July, the world found out that, although North Korea does possess long-range missile capability, the results of the tests do not exhibit consistent capacity to reach the intended target. We know, and have known for quite a while, that North Korea possesses the capability to build nuclear weapons, and now we know that they have done so. Again, not a surprise.

So, given limited delivery capability, and the general consensus that, no matter how many weapons North Korea has, the US has more, spread within a wider territory, how does this test change the political balance? If anything, Mr. Kim has created a weapon that he cannot use, for North Korea has no second-strike capability. If he were to detonate a weapon in a context other than a test, the world would react, either with nuclear or conventional weapons, obliterating significant sections of both his population and his infrastructure. My personal money would be on well-placed tactical nukes, particularly if it were to happen in the next two years (before the US administration changes), but that's beside the point. Overall, regardless of the method, overt war would be good for no one, and even in the most simple game theory matrix, an option to be avoided.

Instead, what Mr. Kim has achieved by announcing this test is a new phase of detente between China and Japan. After nearly two years of silence between the two powers, the change in Japan's political landscape, coupled with North Korea's disregard for the Nuclear NPT, has led to a summit in Beijing. This, now, is a most interesting development. With the economic strength of China and Japan improving (despite rocky financial indicators for Japan this summer), and that of the US on the decline, Mr. Kim's action, if it leads to more comprehensive cooperation between China and Japan, could be the precipitating moment for an economic power shift rather than a political or military one.

Given the relationship between China and North Korea, this would be no small achievement on Mr. Kim's part. The world could, then, rant, rave, and declare sanctions. But in terms of significant investment, North Korea's nuke could result in a short-term economic decline with the potential for far greater growth over the next twenty years. Not, perhaps, such a poor round of the game after all.

*note, please, that this is nu-cle-ar, not nu-cu-lar!