Assassins

General Samir Shehade, a Lebanese intelligence official involved in investigating the death of Rafiq al-Hariri, survived a remote-detonated bomb directed at his convoy. The bomb killed 4 and injured 4 others, including Shehade.

Interestingly, the bombing comes 10 days before a UN report detailing the UN Chief Investigator into the al-Hariri assassination, Serge Brammertz's, findings is sent to the Security Council.

Now, I'm not an assassin. I'm also not intimately involved in either Syrian or Lebanese politics, but it seems to me that US suspicions that Syria is behind this assassination attempt are, well, asinine. Why? Here's the analysis for the day.

The UN report, although not yet submitted, is, one imagines, fairly close to final. In fact, Brammertz already submitted a report, and this one is an update of his findings. If I were Basher Assad, the last thing I'd do, when waiting on some pretty thin ice, is escalate the situation, particularly when I have a small chance to be taken seriously by larger world powers if I play nicely re: Lebanon.

On the other hand, who benefits from unrest in southern Lebanon? At the moment, it's not Lebanon, it's not Israel, and it's really not even Hizballah. Does Syria benefit? Does Iran? What is Tehran's real stake in this game, particularly when coupled with the current nuclear standoff and threat of UN sanctions?

If I were Assad, I'd be first in line to find the answer.